No melhor dos mundos

No melhor dos mundos, Portugal chega a 2020 com um rácio de dívida nos 100% do PIB

O último documento com uma análise de sustentabilidade à dívida pública portuguesa foi publicado pelo FMI na segunda avaliação ao programa português  (páginas 40 a 46 do pdf). Segundo os economistas de Washington, sem reestruturação, mas com tudo a correr bem, Portugal conseguiria chegar a 2020 com um rácio de dívida pública sobre o PIB de cerca de 100% do PIB. Mas nem tudo poderá correr bem:

– O melhor dos mundos é mesmo bastante bom. Inclui, por exemplo, um crescimento da economia já em 2013 e o regresso aos mercados a taxas razoáveis em 2014:

Staff’s medium-term growth assumptions do not include any payoff from structural reforms. Growth projections for 2012 have been revised downwards from -1.8 percent to -3 percent, but continue to reflect a cyclical recovery starting in 2013. In the long term, the baseline incorporates the authorities’ potential growth assumption of 2 percent, which seems realistic. However, debt sustainability strongly depends on the full implementation of a large cumulative improvement in the structural primary balance adjustment of almost 9 percent of GDP over 2010–13. In addition, the baseline assumes that policies are unchanged thereafter and Portugal returns to markets at reasonable interest rates in 2014.

– Se nas contas forem incluídos os impactos de longo prazo das PPP e do envelhecimento e admitirmos um cenário macroeconómico ligeiramente pior (recessão ainda em 2013 e crescimento de 1% até 2020), então a dívida passa a ser insustentável:

Under staff’s alternative scenario of lower growth (deeper recession over the program period and potential growth at 1 percent instead of 2 percent in the baseline), debt would remain flat at 120 percent of GDP over the long-term (before including long-term pressures). If long-term pressures are taken into account in this low-growth scenario, even without considering any other shock, debt would not be sustainable. These stress tests underscore the sensitivity of debt sustainability to lower growth, and highlight the challenges in bringing down debt to less vulnerable levels. This exercise reinforces the urgent need for structural and growth-enhancing reforms in Portugal.

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